Futurecaps Performance

August 18, 2015

The past 3-5 year Performance of Futurecaps shows that we are up to par with the professional analysts.

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Recommendations

Lot of people email us why we are not providing further recommendations.  The reason was already published, as per SEBI guideline we should not provide Stock Recommendations without an Analyst Certificate.

Hopefully, one of our “too busy” analysts should come up with the certification shortly.

Our dream is to launch "Futurecaps Supercaps" during 2016 and show a return of 1000% in just 2 years.

Smile

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Why Day Traders won’t become Millionaires?

July 16, 2015

Stock Market is very tricky that 90% of the investors are trapped in the first step called "Day Trading". Let us analyze some facts that makes them a failure, while they are unaware of these. I have validated these with Brokers & Analysts . 

PROBILITY

Consulting with a 10 year experienced Day Trader, the maximum profit he can make is 5% per month.

==========CALCULATION FOR THE ARITHMETIC NICHE=======
This is how we conclude Net Profit of 5%:

The costs of each trade are:
1) Buy/Sell – 1% cost including brokerage, exchange charge, STT etc.
2) Capital Gain – 15% on net profit of year end

For 10 trades the winning pattern with 10% gain or 10% loss is.
1) 5 Profit Trades =
2) 3 Loss Trades
3)) 2 Break Even Trades

Here 10% gain will come down to 8% including charges & capital gain
Loss or Break Even will add additional 1% too.

So the summary is
5 Profit Trades = 5 * 8% = 40%
3 Loss Trades = 3 * 11% = -33%
2 Break Even Trades = 2 * 1% = -2%
So that makes Net Profit of 5%
==============================================

So the yearly profit is 60%. After deducting Capital Gain Tax of 15%, the profit comes down to 50% yearly.

AS YOU KNOW

these retail day traders are trading with 1-2 Lakhs of capital, so their profit per year is 50 thousand rs. Plus, they have to deduct electricity, internet & tips expenses too.

SO THE NET PROFIT

is 40000 rs. per year OR 4000 rs. per month.

WHY THEY WON’T BECOME RICH?

Because, in order to be rich, they have to increase the capital, which they won’t! As they don’t have confidence in the 5% profit too!!

DAY TRADING IS A JOB

Day trading happens 9-3 office time and one has to do it replacing their office hours.

IMAGINE IN ANOTHER JOB

If the above day trader was working in another job, his 10 year experience would have earned him 10 Lakhs Rs. salary after tax, per year.

So they are loosing money in that manner.

I hope this clarifies that Why a (retail) Day Trader won’t be rich.

SEBI Restrictions

December 26, 2014

As per SEBI’s new restriction on recommendations, we are waiting for getting the analyst certification.

Till then no new recommendations.  Sorry for the same.

Link: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/from-dec-1-only-registered-analysts-can-give-recommendations-sebi/article6643934.ece

Stock Updates

November 5, 2014

Panasonic Energy, Saksoft, Poddar Developers rendered 100% returns in 3 months.  Congratulations! (if you are holding it) 🙂

You may wish to hold/sell Panasonic Energy.  Delisting on card.  news link

Mirza International holding 30% returns from recommendation.  It posted flat-quarterly results.  We recommend to sell it if Sep 2014 result too is flat.  Switching to promising counters like Mahindra Lifespace (100% Trailing EPS Growth) would prove better in coming year.

Kovai Medical Center (30% returns) posted impressive quarterly results.  Should be good to hold ahead.

Note

We are working towards predicting the end of bull run to do a massive sell of all stocks.  Our barometers says 1-2 years would be safer to play with.

Welspun Syntex – Multibagger Analysis

November 2, 2014

Welspun Syntex Limited was established in 1983 and is the flagship company under the Welspun umbrella. Since its inception WSL. has grown manifold and today is amongst the largest manufacturers and exporters of Polyester Texturised Filament Yarn, Nylon Filament Yarn from India.

With plants located at Silvassa and Palghar (Thane), India WSL. is well equipped to meet the domestic as well as international demand.

image

Company URL: http://www.welspunsyntex.com/

Screener URL: http://www.screener.in/company/?q=508933

CMP: 26.00

Warren Buffett Checklist

History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow

Yes. image

Durable Competitive Advantage

Moderate. image

Future Growth Drivers

Moderate. image

Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)

Not. image

Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio

1.65, 1.48 image 

Return on Equity must be Above Average

18% image

Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations

Not. image

Management is holding / buying the stock

65%.  Flat. image

Price is Under Valued (< intrinsic value)

Yes. image

Stock Price is consolidating (now)

Yes. image

Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth

Yes. image

Additional Futurecaps Checklist

Consolidated PE, PB Ratio

PE 5.17, PB 31 image

Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%

Yes. No. image

Paying Dividends, Tax

Dividends: No, Tax: Yes image

EPS Growth Rate

20% image

Jump in Trailing Result EPS

Yes. image

Jump in Quarterly Result EPS

Yes. image

Expected Gain in 5 Years

10-12 times image

Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low

30/6 image

Volume Analysis

66000 (High) image

Power of Brand

Yes. image

Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders

Moderate. image

Fraud reported

Not in current search image

Annual Report

Expansion Plans on Card link image

Declaration

Based on the Value & Growth parameters, the company hold Multibagger properties.

image_thumb1

 Allocation

1-2% of portfolio.

Disclaimer

Futurecaps recommends 100 to 150 multibaggers per year, we recommend a 25% to 50% allocation of your savings in equity.  The stocks recommended here are gone through Analysts of several years experience in stock market.  Although they were successful in predicting future multibaggers, the overall stock market is a risky game.  So we recommend the reader to put his/her own thoughts & invest wisely.

Duke Offshore – Multibagger Analysis

October 27, 2014

DUKE OFFSHORE LIMITED is headquartered in Mumbai, India and is managed by a dynamic group of oil field and marine professionals. Our Engineering Division has dedicated teams of engineers and support staff who are specialized in hook up and commissioning of offshore oil field platforms, their maintenance, modification and inspection services.

The Diving Division provides a dedicated underwater platform inspection, maintenance and repair (IMR) program for oil companies. In addition diving services are provided for drill rig support, SBM and SPM installation, operations and maintenance.

The Offshore vessel and Marine Management Division provides offshore support vessels like supply vessels, crew boats and hook up/ accommodation barges globally.

The Special Force Protection Division has been created to provide offshore patrol vessels to the oil fields and other offshore installations for security and protection.

image

Company URL: http://www.dukeoffshore.com/

Screener URL: http://www.screener.in/company/?q=531471

CMP: 31.00

Warren Buffett Checklist

History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow

Yes. image

Durable Competitive Advantage

Moderate. image

Future Growth Drivers

Good for next 2 years. image

Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)

Yes. image

Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio

0.09 image

Return on Equity must be Above Average

23 (Good) image

Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations

Not. image

Management is holding / buying the stock

Slightly decreasing in past 3 years. image

Price is Under Valued (< intrinsic value)

Yes. image

Stock Price is consolidating (now)

Yes. image

Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth

Yes. image

Additional Futurecaps Checklist

Consolidated PE, PB Ratio

PE 9, PB 1.5 image

Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%

Not.  Yes. image

Paying Dividends, Tax

No. Yes. image

EPS Growth Rate

50% to 100% image

Jump in Trailing Result EPS

Yes. 100%. image

Jump in Quarterly Result EPS

Yes. 15%. image

Expected Gain in 5 Years

10 to 15 times. image

Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low

62.00/11.00 image

Volume Analysis

6800 (Good) image

Power of Brand

Moderate. image

Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders

Yes. image

Fraud reported

Not in current search. image
Annual Report Expansion plan on card. LINK image

Declaration

Based on the value & growth parameters we declare the company as a multibagger. 

image_thumb1

Allocation

1-23% of portfolio.

Note

Capitalization is very low – 15 crores.

Disclaimer

Futurecaps recommends 100 to 150 multibaggers per year, we recommend a 25% to 50% allocation of your savings in equity.  The stocks recommended here are gone through Analysts of several years experience in stock market.  Although they were successful in predicting future multibaggers, the overall stock market is a risky game.  So we recommend the reader to put his/her own thoughts & invest wisely.

Menon Bearings – Multibagger Analysis

October 20, 2014

Menon Bearings Ltd. established in 1991, is one of the few companies in the continent having fully integrated manufacturing facilities under one roof, to produce a wide range of critical auto components like bi-metal Engine bearings, Bushes & Thrust Washers for light & heavy automobile engines, two wheeler engines as well as for compressors, refrigerators, air conditioners etc. MBL is Listed on the BSE ( Bombay Stock Exchange ) & is globally positioned with business activities spanning 24 countries around the globe. Exporting 35 % of its production capacity, with exports growth at more than 25 % per annum, the engineering capabilities at MBL enjoys strong brand equity among leading OEMs all over the world.

image

Company URL: http://www.menonbearings.in/

Screener URL: http://www.screener.in/company/?q=523828

CMP: 121.00

Warren Buffett Checklist

History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow

Yes. image

Durable Competitive Advantage

Moderate. image

Future Growth Drivers

Good. image

Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)

Yes. image

Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio

0.55 image

Return on Equity must be Above Average

18% image

Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations

Moderate to High. image

Management is holding / buying the stock

Promoter Holding 75%, Flat image

Price is Under Valued (< intrinsic value)

Yes image

Stock Price is consolidating (now)

Moderate. image

Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth

Yes. image

Additional Futurecaps Checklist

Consolidated PE, PB Ratio

PE 18; PB 3 image

Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%

Yes. Yes. image

Paying Dividends, Tax

Yes image

EPS Growth Rate

30% average. image

Jump in Trailing Result EPS

Yes. 50%. image

Jump in Quarterly Result EPS

Yes. 100%. image

Expected Gain in 5 Years

8-10 times. image

Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low

132.00/28.00 image

Volume Analysis

15000 image

Power of Brand

Moderate. image

Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders

Yes. image

Fraud reported

Not in current search. image

Read Analysis Report for Future Plans, Capacity expansion

No serious expansion plans on card.. LINK image

Declaration

Based on the value & growth factors, we declare the company as a moderate Multibagger.  But as the PE is 18 we prefer to invest at lower levels.

image_thumb1

Allocation

2-3% of portfolio.

Disclaimer

Futurecaps recommends 100 to 150 multibaggers per year, we recommend a 25% to 50% allocation of your savings in equity.  The stocks recommended here are gone through Analysts of several years experience in stock market.  Although they were successful in predicting future multibaggers, the overall stock market is a risky game.  So we recommend the reader to put his/her own thoughts & invest wisely.

Freshtrop Fruits – Multibagger Analysis

October 19, 2014

The company was incorporated as a Private Limited company on 30th September, 1992, at Ahmedabad in the state of Gujarat. It was converted into a Public Limited company on 22nd September, 1994.
Freshtrop was one of the first companies in the corporate sector to enter into exporting fresh fruit to developed countries. The company has played a pioneering role in establishing exports of grapes and pomegranates from India to Europe.

image

Company URL: http://www.freshtrop.in/

Screener URL: http://www.screener.in/company/?q=530077

CMP: 60.00

Warren Buffett Checklist

History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow

Yes. image

Durable Competitive Advantage

Moderate. image

Future Growth Drivers

Good. image

Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)

Not. image

Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio

0.64 image

Return on Equity must be Above Average

18% image

Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations

Moderate. image

Management is holding / buying the stock

55%.  Increasing. (no pledging) image

Price is Under Valued (< intrinsic value)

Yes. image

Stock Price is consolidating (now)

Yes. image

Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth

Yes. image

Additional Futurecaps Checklist

Consolidated PE, PB Ratio

PE 9 (Consolidated); PB 2 image

Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%

Yes.  No. image

Paying Dividends, Tax

Yes. image

EPS Growth Rate

30% above as average. image

Jump in Trailing Result EPS

Yes. image

Jump in Quarterly Result EPS

Yes 50% above. image

Expected Gain in 5 Years

Taking 30% as average and PE resizing to 30, 12-15 times. image

Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low

74.00/17.00 image

Volume Analysis

36000 image

Power of Brand

Yes. image

Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders

Yes. image

Fraud reported

Not in current search. image

Analysis Report

Annual Report shows growth prospects LINK image

Declaration

Based on value, growth parameters & future expansion possibilities, we declare this as a Multibagger.

image_thumb1

Allocation

2-3% of your portfolio.

Warning

As the company have debts, ensure you clear your holdings before start of recession in 1-2 years.  During recession time debt companies sucks!

Disclaimer

Futurecaps recommends 20 to 25 multibaggers per year, we recommend a 25% to 50% allocation of your savings in equity.  The stocks recommended here are gone through Analysts of several years experience in stock market.  Although they were successful in predicting future multibaggers, the overall stock market is a risky game.  So we recommend the reader to put his/her own thoughts & invest wisely.

Bharat Rasayan – Multibagger Analysis

October 19, 2014

Bharat Rasayan established in 1989 is a privately managed organization having manufacturing units in and around Mumbai INDIA. We are a part of the broader Shah Group of Companies. Bharat Rasayan serves a wide range of industries including but not limited to Pharmaceuticals, Bulk Drugs, R&D, Petrochemicals, Flavors & Fragrances and Specialty Chemicals. We provide Custom manufacturing/Contract manufacturing of diverse compounds to meet the unique needs of every client. In addition we offer a number of Grignard Reagents, Pharma / Drug intermediates and solvents on a regular basis.

image

Company URL:

http://www.bharatgroup.co.in/

http://www.bharatrasayan.net/

Screener URL: http://www.screener.in/company/?q=590021

CMP: 648.00

Warren Buffett Checklist

History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow

Yes. image

Durable Competitive Advantage

Moderate. image

Future Growth Drivers

Moderate. image

Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)

Okay. image

Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio

High. image

Return on Equity must be Above Average

28% image

Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations

Moderate. image

Management is holding / buying the stock

Holding 75%. Flat. (no pledging) image

Price is Under Valued (< intrinsic value)

Yes. image

Stock Price is consolidating (now)

Yes. image

Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth

Yes. image

Additional Futurecaps Checklist

Consolidated PE, PB Ratio

PE 10, PB 3 image

Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%

Yes. Yes. image

Paying Dividends, Tax

Yes. Yes. image

EPS Growth Rate

50% – 3 year average image

Jump in Trailing Result EPS

Yes. image

Jump in Quarterly Result EPS

Yes – 400% image

Expected Gain in 5 Years

30-40 times if current EPS growth is sustainable applying PE-resizing to 30. image

Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low

777/101 image

Volume Analysis

173 (Very low to execute buy order) image

Power of Brand

Moderate. image

Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders

Yes. image

Fraud reported

Not in current search. image
Annual Report Future Plans good – expansion with borrowing in card.  Be watchful though as in 2 years economy can turn bad. LINK image

Declaration

It is a potential multibagger.

image_thumb1

Allocation

2-3% of current portfolio.

Disclaimer

Futurecaps recommends 100 to 150 multibaggers per year, we recommend a 25% to 50% allocation of your savings in equity.  The stocks recommended here are gone through Analysts of several years experience in stock market.  Although they were successful in predicting future multibaggers, the overall stock market is a risky game.  So we recommend the reader to put his/her own thoughts & invest wisely.

Superhouse – Multibagger Analysis

October 19, 2014

Superhouse Group, is a multi-unit and multi-product conglomerate with brand leadership in the field of footwear manufacturing and exports. The Group is well equipped with the most modern machineries and a specialized workforce and produces all types of quality leather, leather goods and textile garments that are appreciated all over the world.

image

Company URL: http://www.superhousegroup.com/

Screener URL: http://www.screener.in/company/?q=523283

CMP: 236.00

Fundamental Analysis: LINK 1 LINK 2

Warren Buffett Checklist

History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow

Yes. image

Durable Competitive Advantage

Yes. image

Future Growth Drivers

Good. image

Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)

High. image

Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio

0.8 image

Return on Equity must be Above Average

18% image

Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations

Not. image

Management is holding / buying the stock

54%. 3 year flat. image

Price is Under Valued (< intrinsic value)

Yes. image

Stock Price is consolidating (now)

Yes. image

Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth

Yes. image

Additional Futurecaps Checklist

Consolidated PE, PB Ratio

PE 6, PB 1.3 image

Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%

Yes. 5%. image

Paying Dividends, Tax

Yes. image

EPS Growth Rate

20% on average. image

Jump in Trailing Result EPS

Yes. image

Jump in Quarterly Result EPS

Yes. 100%. image

Expected Gain in 5 Years

15-20 times (EPS Growth, PE resizing to 40) image

Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low

295.00/50.00 image

Volume Analysis

18000 image

Power of Brand

Yes. image

Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders

Good. image

Fraud reported

Not in current search. image

Read Analysis Report for Future Plans, Capacity expansion

   

Declaration

On the grounds of value & growth parameters, we declare the company has a multibagger.

Please note that the 5 year prediction won’t work stratightaway since within 1-2 years recession could come back.  Act judiciously.

image_thumb1

Allocation

2-3% of your portfolio.

Disclaimer

Futurecaps recommends 20 to 25 multibaggers per year, we recommend a 25% to 50% allocation of your savings in equity.  The stocks recommended here are gone through Analysts of several years experience in stock market.  Although they were successful in predicting future multibaggers, the overall stock market is a risky game.  So we recommend the reader to put his/her own thoughts & invest wisely.